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Advances in Monetary and
Financial Measurement (AMFM)

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Monetary Notes & Views

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January 2023 (Released January 31, 2023)

Falling Money and the Fed - In December, CFS Divisia M4 (DM4) declined by the 14th largest amount on record since 1968. The implication is that inflation and growth are slowing more dramatically than many believe.

November 2021 (Released November 2, 2021)

Two Measures for the Fed and Investors - With inflation in excess of 5% in each of the last 5 months, two measures should influence Fed and investor decisions going forward.

July 2021 (Released July 14, 2021)

Now, Inflation is Clear and Global - Across the board higher consumer price inflation in the United States removes any ambiguity or doubt regarding the existence of price pressures beyond transitory or base effects. The phenomenon also extends well beyond simply the United States. It is global.

June 2021 (Released June 4, 2021)

New Money Growth and Inflation - Charts highlight how 1) broad money growth is beginning to accelerate and 2) Inflation will likely stretch beyond the Fed’s comfort zone.

April 2021 (Released April 26, 2021)

Inflation Fears Offers the Fed a Chance to Modernize with Money - Since 2012, CFS has offered the public alternative monetary measures - pioneered by Professor William A. Barnett. From this work, we now know that measuring activity in the financial system better predicts both inflation as well as financial instability risks.

June 2016 (Released July 8, 2016)

Why CFS Divisia Money Matters, Now! - At the Society for Economic Measurement, Lawrence Goodman illustrates how the world may have been different had CFS Divisia money been on the Fed's dashboard.

January 2015 (Released February 25, 2015)

Liquidity Shortage: Houston, We Have a Problem - The world is plagued by a shortage of financial market liquidity despite an overabundance of central bank liquidity. CFS Divisia data reveal that since 2011, the needed correction in reducing the role of market finance in the economy has fallen too far and compromised financial market liquidity.

October 2014 (Released November 19, 2014)

Shriveling Shadow Banking Limits Liquidity and Damages the Economy - “Market finance” (or what some like to call “shadow banking”) is shriveling to the detriment of the economy and financial market liquidity. Access to market finance has shriveled by 45% in real terms since 2008 - the largest cyclical drop in the last 40 years.

January 2014 (Released February 19, 2014)

End of the Free QE Lunch - Based on CFS monetary and financial data, it appears that the seemingly free lunch from quantitative easing (QE) is nearing an end.

September 2013 (Released October 16, 2013)

Soft Spot for Financial Institutions and Economy - The economy appears less responsive to injections of money in 2013 and to QE3. A breakdown of the financial system into traditional and shadow banking reveals stress in each.

June 2013 (Released July 17, 2013)

The Fed’s Three-Legged Stool - Federal Reserve objectives are visibly morphing from a “dual” to a “triple” mandate. Although essential, it complicates policy and the related impact on markets.

May 2013 (Released June 19, 2013)

The Supersized Fed Balance Sheet and the Future - Fed comments signal a view that a slow tapering or stabilization of the monetary base will simultaneously permit a graceful exit from QE as well as bypass market setbacks. This is likely false. Markets trade on the margin. But, based on plausible policy pathways, the infusion of base money can continue at least in the near term.

April 2013 (Released May 22, 2013)

Bubbles, Corrections, and the Fed - Expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is fueling a bubble in financial markets. However, CFS monetary and financial data suggest that any correction is likely months away.

March 2013 (Released April 17, 2013)

Growth Stalls and Shadow Banking - Shadow banking liabilities such as repurchase agreements, institutional money market funds, and commercial paper are demonstrating divergent trends early in 2013.

February 2013 (Released March 20, 2013)

Fed Policy Drives Equities - Today, CFS monetary and financial data shows how the policy of purchasing Treasury and mortgage securities by the Federal Reserve or quantitative easing (QE) accentuates swings in equity markets.

January 2013 (Released February 20, 2013)

Goodbye Liquidity Trap - Today, CFS monetary data demonstrate that the US economy is exiting from a liquidity trap.

December 2012 (Released January 16, 2013)

New Fed Targets and Money - Today, CFS monetary data decisively demonstrate that the US economy is gaining momentum.

November 2012 (Released December 19, 2012)

QE3 and Markets - The move by the Fed to purchase $45 billion per month in longer-term Treasury securities will undoubtedly influence financial markets into 2013…

October 2012 (Released November 21, 2012)

Shadow Banking and the Fed - CFS money supply data suggests that the economy has bottomed, yet remains vulnerable to the upcoming fiscal cliff. The shadow banking system is down 40% from peak to trough in the recent financial crisis....

September 2012 (Released October 17, 2012)

Money, Elections and the Fed - CFS money supply data provides the opportunity to evaluate money, the Fed, and the U.S. financial system. Many ponder the role of the Federal Reserve during election cycles...

August 2012 (Released September 19, 2012)

Fiscal Distortions and Financial System Stress - CFS proprietary money supply data provide a crucial barometer to measure the traditional and shadow banking system in real time. Data for August highlight distortions from Fed policy and weakness in the banking system...

July 2012 (Released August 22, 2012)

Reveal Policy Uncertainty and Regime Change - CFS proprietary money supply data provide a crucial barometer to measure the traditional and shadow banking system in real time. Policy uncertainty in the US and Europe is restraining activity in the financial system and economy...

June 2012 (Released July 18, 2012)

Weak Economy and Flight To Safe Haven Assets - CFS data provide a crucial barometer to measure Fed actions, the economy, and financial system in real time. Our data foreshadow a subpar expansion in coming months.

May 2012 (Released June 20, 2012)

Economic Slide and Clogged Financial System - Our new proprietary CFS data provide a crucial barometer to measure Fed actions and shadow banking in real time. Our data show that the US financial system is clogged.