Center for Financial Stability

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The Center for Financial Stability is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit think tank focused on financial markets for the benefit of investors, officials, and the public.  More

Latest Research

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 5.1% in October 2021 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.9% in September.   October Data Release

How the Fed Rigs the Bond Market: Sales by "vigilantes" used to serve as a warning of inflationary policies. The signal has been muted.

The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Lawrence Goodman that offers specific actions for Congress, Treasury, and the Fed to defuse imbalances and gradually restore market dynamics to the determination of bond yields.   More

Two Measures for the Fed and Investors

With inflation in excess of 5% in each of the last 5 months, two measures should influence Fed and investor decisions going forward.  More

Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom?

CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett delivered the keynote lecture at the UK Conference, "Post BREXIT: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement, and COVID-19 Challenges."   More

New Report Highlights Rising Sovereign Credit Risks

CFS Senior Fellow David Beers and co-authors Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger and John Fraser Walsh update the BoC-BoE sovereign default database and related research. They highlight that globally, the value of sovereign defaults reached an estimated US$443 billion last year, up from US$300 billion in 2019. The authors expect defaults to continue to grow this decade and strain the ad hoc multilateral framework for resolving them.  More

Now, Inflation is Clear and Global

Across the board higher consumer price inflation in the United States removes any ambiguity or doubt regarding the existence of price pressures beyond transitory or base effects. The phenomenon also extends well beyond simply the United States. It is global.   More

New Money Growth and Inflation

Charts highlight how 1) broad money growth is beginning to accelerate and 2) Inflation will likely stretch beyond the Fed’s comfort zone.   More

Post-Pandemic Economic Risks

Professor William A. Barnett - Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement at CFS - highlights how the post-pandemic period could see a conflict between Treasury's desire to minimize the cost of government debt finance and the Fed's need to moderate inflation.  More

Inflation Fears Offers the Fed a Chance to Modernize with Money

Since 2012, CFS has offered the public alternative monetary measures - pioneered by Professor William A. Barnett. From this work, we now know that measuring activity in the financial system better predicts both inflation as well as financial instability risks.  More

Rhodes on Debt for Vaccines program

CFS Chairman of the Advisor Board William R. Rhodes and World Health Organization epidemiologist Cristina Valencia offer an intriguing idea to help ameliorate the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America... debt for vaccine swaps.   More

Robinhood and GameStop: Essential Issues and Next Steps for Regulators and Investors

Lost in the hullabaloo surrounding GameStop and Robinhood is the issue of greatest concern to all - financial stability. A group of Center for Financial Stability (CFS) experts examines essential issues and proposes next steps.   More

Corporate Debt 'Relief' Is an Economic Dud

The Wall Street Journal published the op-ed by CFS Advisory Board Member Sheila Bair and President Lawrence Goodman. Capitalism doesn't work unless capital costs something and markets don't work unless they are allowed to rise and fall.   More


 
 
Events
 
Discussion with Fed Gov Waller on Economic and Monetary Outlook

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) hosted remarks and a discussion with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller. Governor Waller focussed on the economic and monetary outlook. View the video.

 
Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System:
75 years after Bretton Woods

Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image
Bretton Woods 2019 Conference Image

The conference commemorated the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement by gathering high-level thinkers from all over the world to evaluate extraordinary monetary policies, spillovers, financial innovation, and the IMF.

Please see more about the roundtable agenda or summary.

 
The Global Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Future

This conference, co-sponsored by CFS, the Central Bank of Iceland and the University of Iceland, examined the causes of the 2008 crisis, regulatory responses, and lessons for the future.

Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.

 
Bank of England Conference in Honor of William A. Barnett

Discussions at the “Financial Services Indices, Liquidity and Economic Activity” conference focused on understanding and assessing the macroeconomic implications of liquidity, the liquidity creation process, and the impacts of liquidity on financial markets and economic activity.

Please see more about the conference including program and presentations.

 
Bretton Woods 2014 Conference Image

Bretton Woods 2014 gathered prominent leaders from government, business, and academia in a working-group environment to focus on the future of finance and the international monetary system. Please see more about the conference to see other remarks, presentations, and photos from the conference.

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News & Views

Friday, December 3, 2021

Highlights

How the Fed Rigs the Bond Market: Sales by 'vigilantes' used to serve as a warning of inflationary policies. The signal has been muted.The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Lawrence Goodman that offers specific actions for Congress, Treasury, and the Fed to defuse imbalances and gradually restore market dynamics to the determination of bond yields.

Special Consellor Jack Malvey was quoted in “Markets Bet Inflation Is Hot Enough to Spur Reluctant Rate Hikes” by Liz McCormick and Garfield Reynolds of Bloomberg.

Chris Giancarlo, former Chairman of the CFTC, has just released his new book, “CryptoDad: The Fight for the Future of Money”. CryptoDad is engaging and destined to have great impact, adding depth to the many vectors influencing the future of cryptocurrencies and regulation.

Bair on Finance for Kids” CFS Advisory Board Member Sheila Bair is now the author of a new series of entertaining children’s books about money called Money Tales.

Inflation was inevitable after the Fed fuelled monetary growth CFS President, Lawrence Goodman wrote a letter published in The Financial Times (August 8, 2021) in response to Howard Marks' "Investors must not bet too much on macro forecasts."

Congratulations to William R. Rhodes - CFS Advisory Board Chairman - for his promotion to the rank of Commander in the Legion of Honor by France. Read his remarks at the ceremony.

Analysis: Economists eye surging money supply as inflation fears mount - Bill Barnett is quoted in a story by Karen Brettell of Reuters on inflation and money supply as measured by the CFS Divisia M4.

Congratulations to Professor Charles Goodhart for earning Central Banking's lifetime achievement award. Central Banking chronicles many of Charles' monetary policy and financial stability achievements.

Robinhood and GameStop: Essential Issues and Next Steps for Regulators and Investors, The Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance published CFS analysis of Robinhood and GameStop.

CFS IN THE NEWS

Discussion with Fed Gov Waller
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller offered remarks and discussed Economic and Monetary Policy with CFS on November 19.  View video

Private Roundtable: CFTC Giancarlo on the Future of Cryptocurrencies
The Honorable J. Christopher Giancarlo discussed the rise of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, central bank digital currency, as well as his forthcoming book "CryptoDad: the Fight for the Future of Money."

Private Roundtable: The Honorable Mark A. Calabria, Ph.D. on the Future of the Mortgage Finance System
The Honorable Mark A. Calabria, Ph.D. discussed the Future of the Mortgage Finance System in a roundtable discussion.

Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom? - CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett delivered the keynote lecture at the UK Conference, "Post BREXIT: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement, and COVID-19 Challenges."  More.

Private Virtual Roundtable: Time Diversification: Dynamic Risk Management - CFS hosted a private virtual roundtable with Myron Scholes.

Private Virtual Roundtable: The Great Demographic Reversal: Aging Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - CFS hosted a private roundtable discussion with CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart and his co-author Manoj Pradhan. The two addressed head-on demographic forces and the findings from their newly released book, “The Great Demographic Reversal.” View Slides